Mechanism · DE
Decision Markets
Markets that drive decisions, not just predict them. The DAO proposes 'should we do X?', PASS and FAIL conditional markets price the future, and the better-expected-outcome wins. Robin Hanson's futarchy.
Also known as: Futarchy markets · Governance markets
In plain terms
Markets that drive decisions, not just predict them. The DAO proposes 'should we do X?', PASS and FAIL conditional markets price the future, and whichever predicts a better outcome wins. 'Vote on values, bet on beliefs.'
How it works
Conditional PASS/FAIL markets resolve by TWAP price after the decision. Trades only count if their universe ends up being the realized one.
How to identify it
Markets tied to a specific governance decision; PASS/FAIL conditional outcomes; resolution by post-decision price evaluation.
Common confusion
Mechanism is binary conditional markets, so they look like normal binary PMs, but the purpose (driving a decision) is what makes them their own category.
Platforms in this category (2)
- MetaDAO · Solana-native futarchy governance · DAOs vote via conditional PASS/FAIL prediction markets; ships Vota for delegation
- Doxa Market · Information markets for decentralized governance · prediction markets layered onto DAO decision-making on Base
Key references
- Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? · Robin Hanson · 2000
- Quantum Markets, a capital-efficient mechanism for scaling futarchy · Yukseloglu & Larbi (Paradigm) · Jun 2025
- Opportunity Markets, private prediction markets where spotters get paid by actors · White & Liston (Paradigm) · Aug 2025
- MetaDAO documentation