Platform · Infrastructure & Tooling
Paradigm Predictions
Paradigm's public PM data dashboard (live Feb 2026) + Bloomberg-style pro terminal (in development, Arjun Balaji-led)
- Mechanism
- Infrastructure & Tooling
- Status
- Data dashboard live Feb 2026; terminal in development
- Founded
- Dashboard live Feb 2026; terminal in development since late 2025 (Fortune Apr 1 2026)
- Market types
- Binary
- Audience
- Power user · Institutional · Quant
- Website
- predictions.paradigm.xyz
Pricing mechanism
Aggregation / routing (terminal across Kalshi/Polymarket US/CME)
Settlement
Inherits upstream
Strengths
- Paradigm brand · led Kalshi's $11B Dec 2025 round, wrote the Distribution Markets paper (Dec 2024). Highest analytical authority in the space.
- Terminal layer above venues · doesn't compete on listings, sits across them. Bloomberg-for-PM positioning is genuinely defensible.
- Public dashboard already shipping at predictions.paradigm.xyz · free funnel into the paid terminal
- Prediction-market indexes research (S&P-500-style PM baskets) could create a new primitive category
Weaknesses
- Not a venue · earnings depend on terminal subscription/data-fee monetization that has never been proven in PM
- Compete-with-portfolio risk: Paradigm is Kalshi's largest investor · terminal across-venues neutrality could be questioned
- Pro-terminal market is small in absolute trader count · Bloomberg has ~330K terminals at $20K+/yr, PM addressable is a fraction
- No real-money settlement function · pure aggregation
About this mechanism
Aggregators, terminals, oracles, Telegram bots, smart-contract primitives. Partners more than competitors · earn from PM activity without taking the other side.