Mechanism · EV
Event Contracts
Binary outcome derivatives traded on CFTC-designated contract markets, USD-settled. Different regulatory and distribution lane from onchain PMs.
Also known as: CFTC event contracts · Regulated PMs · DCM event derivatives
In plain terms
Prediction markets dressed as regulated derivatives so they're legal in the US under federal CFTC oversight rather than state-by-state gambling rules.
How it works
USD-settled binary outcome derivatives listed on a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) and cleared through a DCO. KYC + state-level access gating. Volume measured in contracts, not USD.
How to identify it
US-only, USD-only, KYC at signup, identity verification on withdrawal, state availability matrix, CFTC-registered exchange.
Common confusion
Volume figures are 'contracts' which look like dollars but aren't · a $0.05 contract counts as 1 unit, not $0.05 of volume.
Platforms in this category (9)
- Kalshi · The CFTC-regulated US event-contracts exchange · Wall Street's chosen lane into prediction markets, now a $22B unicorn.
- PredictIt · Academic US-regulated political prediction market by Victoria University of Wellington; won CFTC DCM approval Sep 2025, per-contract cap raised from $850 to $3,500.
- Robinhood Event Contracts · Robinhood's prediction-markets hub · Kalshi-powered binary contracts inside a 25M-user brokerage app, 8.8B contracts traded Q1 2026.
- DraftKings Predictions · DraftKings' CFTC-regulated event-contracts app · launched Dec 2025 fronting CME, added 6-leg parlay-style Combos May 2026, $2.3B+ annualized volume.
- FanDuel Predicts · FanDuel's CFTC-regulated event-contracts app built with CME Group · live in all 50 states (sports in 18), ~$300M Flutter investment.
- OG (OG.com) · Crypto.com's standalone CFTC-regulated PM · first parlay-builder + (planned) margin in CFTC PM stack. Major leadership turnover April 2026.
- Fanatics Markets · First PM at intersection of sports, finance, culture · built with Crypto.com
- ForecastEx · Fully integrated CFTC-regulated DCM + DCO for forecast contracts · wholly owned by Interactive Brokers (IBG LLC)
- Rothera · Robinhood + Susquehanna + MIAX 45/45/10 JV CFTC-licensed exchange · Robinhood's in-house DCM/DCO/SEF to clear its own PMs instead of routing through Kalshi
Key references
- CFTC Section 1a(19) · definition of event contracts
- Aristotle DCM/DCO Approval · Sep 2025
- Robinhood × MIAXdx (Rothera) JV · Nov 2025 → Jan 2026 close