Platform · Event Contracts
PredictIt
Academic US-regulated political prediction market by Victoria University of Wellington; won CFTC DCM approval Sep 2025, per-contract cap raised from $850 to $3,500.
- Mechanism
- Event Contracts
- Status
- Live
- Founded
- 2014
- Market types
- Binary
- Audience
- Retail · Power user · Quant · Politics · Forecasters · AI/researchers
- Website
- www.predictit.org
- @PredictIt
Pricing mechanism
CLOB
Settlement
CFTC-clearinghouse
Strengths
- Only US-regulated long-running political PM
- Academic data partnerships with 160+ universities
- Sep 2025 DCM/DCO approval unlocked higher caps + 400% growth
- Genuine US legal cover
- Long historical dataset valuable to academia
Weaknesses
- Highest fee structure (10% winnings + 5% withdrawal = >14% drag)
- $3,500 per-contract cap still tiny
- Dated UX (2014-era)
- US-only
- Slow academic-curated creation
- $5-10M revenue is small ceiling
- 30-day post-deposit hold
About this mechanism
Binary outcome derivatives traded on CFTC-designated contract markets, USD-settled. Different regulatory and distribution lane from onchain PMs.