Mechanism · FC
Forecasting
Calibration-driven forecasting platforms with no real money. Reputation is the currency. Brier-score tournaments and proper scoring rules.
Also known as: Calibration markets · Reputation forecasting · Superforecaster platforms
In plain terms
Like prediction markets but without money · players make probabilistic forecasts and are scored by accuracy over time. Reputation is the currency.
How it works
Probability submissions over time scored by Brier or other proper scoring rules. Tournament leaderboards; sometimes paid Superforecaster cohorts (Good Judgment Inc.).
How to identify it
No real money in or out; calibration as the explicit goal; long time-series of resolved questions; questions authored by professional analysts.
Platforms in this category (2)
- Metaculus · Reputation-based community forecasting platform · no money, all calibration · used for AI safety, geopolitics, and institutional research forecasts.
- Good Judgment Open · Free public forecasting tournament · Brier-scored, no money on the line · by the commercial successor to Tetlock's IARPA-winning team.
Key references
- Superforecasting · Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner · 2015
- IARPA Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program
- Metaculus methodology