Platform · Forecasting
Metaculus
Reputation-based community forecasting platform · no money, all calibration · used for AI safety, geopolitics, and institutional research forecasts.
- Mechanism
- Forecasting
- Status
- Live
- Founded
- 2015
- Market types
- Binary · Continuous distribution · Multi-outcome
- Audience
- Forecasters · AI/researchers · Institutional · Generalist · Power user
- Website
- www.metaculus.com
- @metaculus
Pricing mechanism
No pricing (forecasting)
Settlement
Centralized operator (staff-resolves against criteria)
Strengths
- Strongest calibration brand
- Native continuous/distribution submission UI · closest UX analog to Dekant
- PBC mission insulates from volume-chasing
- Anthropic/OpenAI/Google sponsorship
- 10 years of resolved questions
Weaknesses
- No money
- Slow signal (weeks-months)
- Human-curated resolution edge-case risk
- Not a hedging/speculation venue
- Scale-limited audience
About this mechanism
Calibration-driven forecasting platforms with no real money. Reputation is the currency. Brier-score tournaments and proper scoring rules.