Platform · Binary Markets
Manifold Markets
Play-money, user-generated social prediction market · largest casual forecasting platform online, ~4pp average calibration.
- Mechanism
- Binary Markets
- Status
- Live
- Founded
- 2021
- Market types
- Binary · Scalar · Multi-outcome
- Audience
- Forecasters · AI/researchers · Generalist · Retail · Builder/infra · Politics
- Website
- manifold.markets
- @ManifoldMarkets
Pricing mechanism
AMM (CPMM)
Settlement
Centralized operator (creator-resolved, reputation-dependent)
Strengths
- Lowest-friction market creation
- Deep EA/rationalist community
- ~4pp average calibration
- Open-source codebase
- Native scalar markets
- Zero gas/KYC friction
Weaknesses
- Play-money only
- Sweepcash retreat closed real-money lane
- Creator-resolves model has reputational risk
- Small team / modest funding
- Unclear monetization
About this mechanism
Yes/No or multi-outcome shares priced via AMM or CLOB. The largest category by platform count · the volume of onchain competition for what most people picture when they hear 'prediction market'.