Mechanism · BI
Binary Markets
Yes/No or multi-outcome shares priced via AMM or CLOB. The largest category by platform count · the volume of onchain competition for what most people picture when they hear 'prediction market'.
Also known as: Onchain prediction markets · Yes/No markets · Conditional token markets
In plain terms
Will event X happen? Yes shares trade at $0.43 implying a 43% probability; settle to $1 if X happens, $0 if not. Same shape as a binary option.
How it works
Yes/No or multi-outcome shares trade against $0–$1, settle to $1 for the winning outcome. Priced by CLOB (Polymarket, Kalshi-style) or AMM (CPMM, FPMM). Conditional Tokens Framework is the dominant primitive on EVM.
How to identify it
$0–$1 share prices; binary or multi-outcome discrete shares; AMM or CLOB liquidity; usually permissionless market creation on EVM or Solana.
Common confusion
Multi-outcome markets here are still discrete · Bitcoin closing in $5k brackets becomes a ladder of binary contracts. People often call these 'continuous' but they aren't.
Platforms in this category (52)
- Polymarket · The dominant US prediction market · a CFTC-regulated CLOB on Polygon settled by UMA, now the world's largest by cumulative volume.
- Hyperliquid HIP-4 · Zero-fee, fully collateralized binary outcome contracts in the same CLOB as Hyperliquid perps · mainnet May 2, 2026.
- Drift BET · Capital-efficient binary prediction markets on Solana · feature of Drift's perp DEX with cross-collateral and yield-on-collateral.
- Augur · Ethereum's original decentralized prediction market · dormant for years, now rebooting in 2026 under Lituus Foundation.
- Manifold Markets · Play-money, user-generated social prediction market · largest casual forecasting platform online, ~4pp average calibration.
- Hedgehog Markets · The original prediction-market protocol on Solana · pooled-liquidity AMM with parlays and in-house optimistic oracle, expanded to Eclipse.
- Limitless · CLOB-based short-duration prediction market on Base · 1-minute, hourly, daily YES/NO contracts on crypto and stocks.
- Myriad Markets · Content-native prediction layer embedded inside DASTAN's Decrypt + Rug Radio media network, running on Abstract with USDC.
- XO Market · Permissionless 'conviction markets' · anyone creates, funds, resolves YES/NO markets on a Celestia-backed sovereign rollup with AI-assisted oracles.
- Predict.fun · BNB Chain-native prediction market with yield-bearing collateral, backed by YZi Labs, integrated directly into Binance Wallet.
- Omen · Original DXdao-stewarded decentralized prediction market on Gnosis Chain, revived as 'Presagio' with AI-agent traders.
- Outcome.xyz · First HIP-4 builder on Hyperliquid · daily BTC binary outcome markets natively in HyperCore, zero fees to open.
- Rain Protocol · Permissionless prediction-market protocol on Arbitrum with AI-consensus oracle (Delphi) resolving outcomes via 5-of-5 LLM agents.
- Melee Markets · Permissionless viral prediction market on Solana · Pump.fun meets Polymarket with creator-economy fee share
- Smort · Solana lossless prediction market · stake SOL, mint smortSOL, predict price direction, winners take losers' yield with principal protected
- JogoJogo · Solana AI-powered prediction-market game with Blink-native UX · pioneered Blinks on Atomic SVM via Sonic, reached 250K+ players
- PRDT (Predictions) · Cross-chain DeFi binary price-prediction platform across 8 chains with daily revenue-sharing PRDT token
- Probable · Zero-fee BNB Chain prediction market incubated by PancakeSwap + YZi Labs, hit $1B in 36 days, acquired by Predict.fun March 2026
- Prophet · Bonding-curve prediction market on Obyte DAG, trades against an Autonomous Agent pool, live since 2022
- PNP Exchange · Permissionless bonding-curve prediction-market DEX on Solana + Base with DefiLlama-integrated auto-settlement for DeFi-metric markets
- Polkamarkets · Multi-EVM-chain prediction market from 2021, POLK token -99.9% from ATH, technically alive but dormant traction
- Inertia · Mobile-first social prediction market for streamers/reality TV/culture on Avalanche by three UCI students, wound down October 2025
- Swaye · Degen-focused user-generated prediction-market platform in open beta · play-money $SWAYE, weekly USDC prizes to top PnL leaderboard performers
- PredX · AI-curated, multichain binary prediction market (Sei-first) that turns KOL tweets and trending news into auto-generated YES/NO markets
- BRKT · The people's prediction market · brackets up to 256, plus binary markets, on Move-VM chains
- Hookt · Tinder for outcomes · the first mobile swipe-to-bet prediction market (BRKT Labs spinoff)
- FORE Protocol · People-powered peer-to-peer prediction markets on Arbitrum with NFT-staked community validators
- Yoyo Market · Open & accessible PvP prediction market · Telegram mini-app parimutuel pools on Arbitrum
- Spec Markets (Speculate) · Speculate on the outcome of any event · liquid markets on everything from pop culture to crypto
- Griffy · The NASDAQ for opinions · fully on-chain order-book prediction market on Fuel Network
- PredictHub · Tokenize Real-World Events. Predict Freely. Real Rewards. · first prediction market on Arbitrum (yield-bearing collateral + Web2 onboarding)
- Upshot (Upshot Cards) · The world's first high-stakes prediction card platform · trading-card UX over binary predictions with instant-win prizes
- worm.wtf · The one and only leveraged prediction market · up to 5x leverage on binary and multi-outcome markets, built on Solana
- Groovy Market · User-generated prediction-market protocol where creators launch their own binary markets and earn trading fees
- The Clearing Company (Clearing) · Acquired by Coinbase Dec 22, 2025 · was building 'a new kind of prediction market' with a CFTC DCO application (first stablecoin-native clearinghouse for event contracts); also shipped 'Lineups' cross-market parlays onchain (Sep 2025)
- Outcøme · Free-to-play prediction markets on AO / Arweave.
- Bodega Market · Cardano's prediction market · 'Building a smarter world, one prediction at a time.' Sports + commodity + crypto markets, ADA/USDM-denominated, Midnight privacy roadmap.
- Pythia (pythia.company) · Onchain prediction-market + reputation protocol · soulbound 'Reputation Tokens' for verified crypto KOL predictions
- MEXC Prediction Markets · Crypto CEX-native event-contracts product · zero-fee public beta launched Mar 16, 2026; positioned as Polymarket rival
- SnapMarkets · 30-second BTC price-prediction markets on Arbitrum · Blockchain.com's offshore tap-trade prediction app
- Fora · Trade Anything With Friends · built by @0xKaner, JOINED Ranger Finance Jan 14, 2026 to build a SocialFi super-app. Standalone PM product effectively wound down.
- TBD (TBD Predict) · Opinion markets · bet on trending polls. Solana PM protocol paired with poll-style 'digital elections'; bio now reads 'opinion markets' (was 'World-ID-gated polls').
- ARENA (arenamarkets.fun) · Self-resolving Solana prediction market for KOL leaderboards, asset prices, and launchpad metrics · LMSR pricing, Pyth + Dune + kolscan oracle, sub-minute resolution, Solana Pay QR betting, and yield-bearing escrow via Lulo.
- Predyx · World's first Bitcoin prediction market powered by Lightning · sats-denominated micro-markets, instant payouts, no-KYC, permissionless market creation. Live at predyx.com.
- Xmarket · Creator-owned prediction markets - the first PM that pays creators and early believers.
- PredictBase · AI-powered prediction markets on Base.
- Ride Markets · Trade conviction: someone calls a trade, the crowd backs YES or NO, and the call directs the fund's treasury to actually place it.
- 42 · Trade the future · asset issuance protocol turning event outcomes into liquid tokens with continuous pricing and parimutuel settlement at resolution
- Trueo · Fully onchain yield-bearing binary PM with decentralized oracle council
- 5Minute.xyz · High-frequency binary PM on Solana · 5-minute rolling rounds on objective signals
- Rocket Markets · Time-based prediction yield market on Monad. Survivors earn yield while the event hasn't happened; Detonators position around the moment they expect the trigger.
- World · Trade Everything. · fully onchain prediction market on Solana, live inside Phantom, CASH-settled, Chainlink-resolved.
Key references
- Combinatorial Information Market Design · Robin Hanson · 2003
- Conditional Tokens Framework · Gnosis
- Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets · Charles Manski · 2004
- The Iowa Electronic Markets · Berg, Forsythe, Nelson, Rietz · since 1988