Platform · Binary Markets
TBD (TBD Predict)
Opinion markets · bet on trending polls. Solana PM protocol paired with poll-style 'digital elections'; bio now reads 'opinion markets' (was 'World-ID-gated polls').
- Mechanism
- Binary Markets
- Chain
- Solana
- Status
- Live (mainnet Feb 2026)
- Founded
- 2024
- Market types
- Binary · Multi-outcome
- Audience
- Crypto-native · Forecasters · Generalist
- Website
- www.tbd.vote
- @trytbd
Pricing mechanism
AMM (CPMM)
Settlement
World-ID-verified consensus (verified-human voting) + poll resolution
Strengths
- Live mainnet with 225K verified humans + 19M votes · order-of-magnitude more verified user evidence than most Solana PM peers
- Strong VC stack: CMT + ParaFi lead, Jump Crypto co-investor, dYdX founder Antonio Juliano + Solana co-founder Raj Gokal + Polygon CEO Mark Boiron as angels
- Solana App Store / Seeker distribution · native mobile presence
- Active product velocity · daily poll markets visible on X (May 2026); @trytbd handle is the primary marketing channel
Weaknesses
- Pivot toward 'opinion markets' framing (current bio) overlaps directly with Fact Machine, Probo, Opinion Trading PROGA-banned operators · crowded category
- World-ID-gated voting is a real anti-sybil feature, but most active markets shown are entertainment/culture polls · TAM ceiling is unclear
- AMM (CPMM) is plain-vanilla mechanism; differentiation is ALL in the verified-human-voting layer
- No token / no clear monetization path beyond market fees
About this mechanism
Yes/No or multi-outcome shares priced via AMM or CLOB. The largest category by platform count · the volume of onchain competition for what most people picture when they hear 'prediction market'.