Platform · Binary Markets
Polymarket
The dominant US prediction market · a CFTC-regulated CLOB on Polygon settled by UMA, now the world's largest by cumulative volume.
- Mechanism
- Binary Markets
- Chain
- Polygon (plus QCEX off-chain for US)
- Status
- Live
- Founded
- 2020
- Market types
- Binary · Multi-outcome · Parlay/Combo
- Audience
- Retail · Politics · Sports · Crypto-native · Generalist · Forecasters
- Website
- polymarket.com
- @Polymarket
Pricing mechanism
CLOB
Settlement
Optimistic (UMA)
Strengths
- Brand + liquidity moat
- Now CFTC-regulated for US
- ICE strategic investment
- Massive backer roster
- Expanded surface: perps, pmUSD
Weaknesses
- UMA oracle has documented manipulation incidents
- Binary-only fragments scalar topics
- Centralization creep (KYC, off-chain matching)
- April 2026 first monthly decline since Aug 2025
- Pressure from Kalshi + Hyperliquid HIP-4
About this mechanism
Yes/No or multi-outcome shares priced via AMM or CLOB. The largest category by platform count · the volume of onchain competition for what most people picture when they hear 'prediction market'.