Mechanism · SC
Scalar Markets
Single position on a scalar variable, paid linearly through discrete LMSR / LS-LMSR / bucketed parimutuel. Past binary but discrete in implementation.
Also known as: Scalar prediction markets · LMSR scalar markets · Range markets
In plain terms
Like a binary YES/NO market but on a number · say 'BTC at year-end' · sliced into a ladder of buckets. Pick a bucket, pay if you're right.
How it works
Discrete buckets along a scalar range with LMSR or LS-LMSR pricing. Trader picks Long/Short or a single bucket; payoff is linear between the strike bounds and the realized value.
How to identify it
Range markets with Long/Short or strike-bucketed shares; LMSR-priced; linear payoff between bounds.
Common confusion
Sometimes positioned as 'continuous markets' but the resolution layer is discretized into buckets, not a true continuous CFAMM.
Platforms in this category (5)
- Zeitgeist · Polkadot-native prediction-market parachain with LMSR-based combinatorial markets and futarchy primitives · technically ambitious, increasingly dormant by 2026.
- Futuur · Long-running hybrid play-money / real-money prediction market using LS-LMSR, licensed in Curaçao, with crypto settlement on Arbitrum.
- Polyquest · Solana prediction market with categorical, scalar, perpetual markets + POLY staking + copy-trading
- Opinion (OPN) · CLOB-based prediction exchange for macro data and global events on BNB Chain, $25M+ raised, AI-oracle-resolved, OPN token live since March 2026
- Unhedged · Private prediction markets on Canton · short-term sports/crypto/politics binaries plus 'Closest to the Mark' scalar markets with Chainlink-verified settlement and top-10 parimutuel payouts
Key references
- Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation · Robin Hanson · 2003
- A Practical Liquidity-Sensitive Automated Market Maker (LS-LMSR) · Othman, Pennock, Reeves, Sandholm · 2010